Offer Calibration
by
Promo calibration for ecommerce teams: price each segment's offer against what that segment is worth, then pick the mechanic that protects margin instead of defaulting to a sitewide percentage.
Most promos are one percentage applied to everybody, which means the discount is simultaneously too generous for the customers who would have bought anyway and too weak for the ones you were trying to convert. The mechanic is rarely questioned either: a percentage off is the default, even where a spend threshold or a gift with purchase would move the same volume at a fraction of the margin cost. This skill values each segment on lifetime value and contribution margin, sizes the offer each one actually needs, and picks the mechanic per segment rather than applying a single number across the file.
What It Does
- Segments the audience on lifetime value, recency and contribution margin.
- Estimates the discount depth each segment needs to convert.
- Compares mechanics: percentage off, spend threshold, gift with purchase, bundle.
- Prices each mechanic against the margin it gives up per segment.
- Flags the segments that convert without any offer at all.
- Returns an offer and a mechanic per segment with the margin cost attached.
Use Cases
- Stop discounting the segment that was going to buy at full price regardless.
- Replace a sitewide percentage with a threshold that lifts basket instead.
- Give a high value segment a gift rather than a discount it will anchor on.
- Plan a peak trading promo with the margin cost known before it launches.
Example Session
We are planning a 20% sitewide promo next week. Is that the right call for every segment?
A flat 20% costs you $63k in margin. Calibrated per segment it costs $38k and sells slightly more.
- Segment | Size | Avg LTV | Needs | Mechanic | Margin cost
- Recent buyers, high LTV | 4,100 | $310 | Nothing | Early access, no discount | $0
- Lapsed, mid LTV | 9,200 | $135 | 15% | Percentage off | $19k
- Never purchased, engaged | 14,700 | n/a | 20% | First order threshold | $14k
- Price-led, low margin mix | 6,800 | $70 | 10% | Gift with purchase | $5k
The first segment is the expensive one to get wrong: 4,100 recent high value buyers handed 20% costs $11k and converts people who were already returning. Give them early access instead, which reads as a reward and costs nothing. Moving the price-led segment from a percentage to a gift protects unit margin because the gift is a fixed cost item rather than a share of every order.
Why This Beats Prompting It Yourself
One Percentage vs A Calibrated Offer: The Hidden Risk
A generic prompt will help you write the promo. Ask what discount to run and you get a number, applied to everyone, with no view of which segments needed no discount at all and which mechanic would have cost less for the same volume. The margin given up on customers who were already returning does not show up anywhere, which is exactly why flat promos keep getting repeated.
When You Still Need The Margin Cost Per Segment
An offer is a purchase, and you should know what you are paying. This skill states $63k for the flat promo against $38k calibrated, shows the $11k being spent on customers who would have returned anyway, and prices each mechanic separately. The segments that convert on early access rather than on discount are usually the ones carrying the highest lifetime value, which makes this the cheapest margin any promo plan recovers.
Known Limitations
Discount depth per segment is estimated from your own promo history, so a brand that has only ever run one mechanic will get wider confidence intervals until it has tested a second. Gift with purchase pricing assumes the gift item has stock and a known cost, which the skill checks and flags rather than assumes. It plans the offer structure and does not create the discount codes or audiences in your store and ESP.
Install It
- Download the ZIP.
It is free and there is no account to create. - Unzip it into your agent's skills folder.
Claude Code reads ~/.claude/skills/, which is hidden by default: the command in the folder block opens it. Other agents scan their own directory, so drop the same folder there instead. - Ask your agent to use it.
Restart the agent if it was already running, then it picks the skill up with no config.
skills folder
Copy
~/.claude/skills/offer-calibration/
SKILL.md
references/mechanics.md
plans/
# one plan per promo, priced per segment
# macOS: create the folder and open it in Finder
mkdir -p ~/.claude/skills && open ~/.claude/skills
# Windows: paste in the Explorer address bar
%USERPROFILE%\.claude\skills\Frequently asked questions
How is this different from asking what discount to run?
A discount recommendation is one number for everybody. This values each segment, estimates the depth each one actually needs, compares four mechanics against the margin each gives up, and prices the whole plan. The output usually costs less than the flat promo and sells the same or more.
Which agents does the skill run in?
Any agent that supports the open SKILL.md format: Claude Code, Cursor, Codex CLI, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Manus, Grok and others load it unmodified. The format is portable, the location is not. Each agent scans its own skills directory, so you drop the same folder into whichever one yours uses. There is no config file to edit and no API key to provision.
What does it need connected to work?
Order history for lifetime value and margin per segment, and past promo performance to estimate depth. Without promo history it still segments and prices the mechanics, and widens its confidence on how deep each segment needs to go.
Why would a segment get no offer at all?
Because recent buyers with high lifetime value convert on access and timing rather than on price, and discounting them spends margin on orders you were going to get. Early access reads as a reward, costs nothing, and avoids training your best customers to wait for the next promo.
Does it handle mechanics other than percentage off?
Yes, that is most of the value. Spend thresholds, gift with purchase and bundles all give up margin differently, and for several segments one of them moves the same volume for a fraction of the cost. Each is priced separately so the comparison is explicit.
What is included with the skill?
The skill itself, the mechanics reference, the segment definitions, and the promo plan template with margin cost per segment. It is free and security scanned. We re-publish the ZIP when the mechanics model changes, so download it again if your promo costings shift.
The right promo per segment needs the value of that segment.
Polar carries lifetime value and contribution margin per cohort on one definition, so the mechanic you choose matches what the segment is worth.
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