Send Decision
by
Daily send decisions for ecommerce teams: weigh today's revenue opportunity against list fatigue and deliverability, then decide send or skip with the segment and the offer.
The send calendar is usually built a month ahead and followed regardless of what the list looks like on the day. That is how a business sends four campaigns in a week to a segment whose engagement is already sliding, watches placement drop, and then wonders why the flows stopped earning. The opposite mistake is just as common: skipping a day that had a genuine reason to send. This skill weighs the revenue a send would produce today against what it costs in engagement and placement, then decides send or skip, with the segment rules and the offer if it says send.
What It Does
- Estimates the revenue today's send would produce from current engagement.
- Measures recent send pressure per segment rather than across the whole list.
- Reads placement and engagement decay as a cost against the send.
- Decides send or skip, and narrows the segment where a full send is too much.
- Sizes the offer only where the segment needs one to convert.
- Protects the flows, which earn more per send than campaigns do.
Use Cases
- Stop following a calendar into a week that is already over-mailed.
- Send to a third of the list on a day a full send would cost placement.
- Skip deliberately, with a number behind the decision.
- Keep campaign pressure from degrading the flows that earn quietly.
Example Session
Should we send today, and to whom?
Send, but to 34% of the list rather than all of it. Here is the arithmetic.
- Segment | Size | Sends, 7 days | Est. revenue | Placement cost | Decision
- Engaged 30d | 18,400 | 2 | $4,900 | Low | Send, no offer
- Engaged 90d | 26,100 | 3 | $2,100 | Medium | Send, 10%
- Lapsed 90-180d | 31,800 | 3 | $640 | High | Skip
- Lapsed 180d plus | 44,200 | 2 | $110 | Severe | Skip
The top two segments are worth $7,000 today at a placement cost you can absorb. The bottom two are worth $750 between them and have taken three sends this week already, which is the pressure that moves you out of the inbox for everyone. Sending to 34% of the list captures 90% of today's revenue and almost none of the cost.
Why This Beats Prompting It Yourself
A Send Calendar vs Today's List Condition: The Hidden Risk
A generic prompt helps you write the campaign that the calendar says goes out today. It has no view of how many sends that segment has already taken this week, what placement is doing, or how little the bottom half of the list is worth on this particular day. The campaign goes out in full and the cost lands on every send that follows.
When You Still Need The Cost Of Sending
A send is a purchase paid for in engagement. This skill states $7,000 of revenue from 34% of the list against $750 from the rest, which is what turns a full send into a narrow one. Skipping is a decision here with a figure attached, and the flows are protected explicitly because they earn more per send than any campaign on the calendar.
Known Limitations
Revenue estimates come from your own recent sends to comparable segments, so a list under a few months old produces a wide first estimate and the output says so. Placement cost is inferred from engagement and delivery signals rather than read directly from mailbox providers, which means it detects a trend reliably and an absolute placement rate only approximately. It decides the send and does not build it in your ESP.
Install It
- Download the ZIP.
It is free and there is no account to create. - Unzip it into your agent's skills folder.
Claude Code reads ~/.claude/skills/, which is hidden by default: the command in the folder block opens it. Other agents scan their own directory, so drop the same folder there instead. - Ask your agent to use it.
Restart the agent if it was already running, then it picks the skill up with no config.
skills folder
Copy
~/.claude/skills/send-decision/
SKILL.md
references/pressure-model.md
decisions/
# one decision per day, with the segment rules
# macOS: create the folder and open it in Finder
mkdir -p ~/.claude/skills && open ~/.claude/skills
# Windows: paste in the Explorer address bar
%USERPROFILE%\.claude\skills\Frequently asked questions
How is this different from a send calendar?
A calendar decides in advance. This decides on the day, from current engagement, send pressure per segment and what the send is actually worth. Most of the time it narrows the segment rather than skipping outright, which is the option a calendar cannot express.
Which agents does the skill run in?
Any agent that supports the open SKILL.md format: Claude Code, Cursor, Codex CLI, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, Manus, Grok and others load it unmodified. The format is portable, the location is not. Each agent scans its own skills directory, so you drop the same folder into whichever one yours uses. There is no config file to edit and no API key to provision.
What does it need connected to work?
Send and engagement history per segment, plus orders so revenue can be estimated. Without orders it decides on engagement alone and says so, which still catches over-mailing but cannot weigh it against what the send is worth.
How does it measure placement cost?
From engagement and delivery signals across your recent sends, not from the mailbox providers directly. That makes it reliable at detecting a trend and approximate at stating an absolute rate, which the output distinguishes rather than blurring.
Why does it protect the flows?
Because flows earn several times more per send than campaigns and are the first thing to suffer when campaign pressure degrades placement. Protecting them is usually worth more than any single campaign the calendar had scheduled.
What is included with the skill?
The skill itself, the pressure model reference, the daily decision template, and the segment rule format. It is free and security scanned. We re-publish the ZIP when the pressure model changes, so download it again if your send decisions shift.
Sending is a margin decision as much as a calendar one.
Polar reconciles flow and campaign revenue against list health on one definition, so send or skip rests on the value at stake today.
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